The economy continues to expand.

In the past 12 months GDP (Gross Domestic Product) grew by 4% after growing by 3% in 2002. Capital spending and payroll employment, both of which lag the economy, have bottomed and are now trending up. The unemployment rate has declined from 6.4% to 5.9% in the past six months. So, in my opinion, the economy is firmly on a recovery track.

We are, of course, still hearing negatives. Some people seem to think that all economic data must exceed the old highs before they’ll admit that things are improving. That’s like saying that daily temperatures must match those of last July before concluding that winter is over. Such a stance makes no sense economically and will cause many investors to miss the largest part of a market upswing.

There are negatives, of course. There always are. The biggest negative is that our politicians continue to spend money like… politicians (thereby outspending teenagers and drunken sailors).

At our recent seminar, we received a number of questions about the federal budget deficit, inflation, and the trade deficit with China. These topics are also getting major play in the media. It’s as if we learned nothing about these topics from the inflation of the 1970s, the budget deficits of the 1980s, or the trade deficit with Japan in the 1970s. (We have included a number of these questions and our response in an insert in this Muhlenkamp Memorandum.)

It appears prices of most stocks and bonds have returned to near fair values after suffering from the triple whammy of recession, psychological hangover from the fad (or bubble) prices, and the psychological damage from the 18–month litany of ills from 9/11/01 through the Iraqi War. We believe this triple whammy has now worked its way through the markets, although some lingering effects are bound to crop up from time to time.

Thus, the markets remain volatile. While not unscathed, we have come through this period in good shape. The challenge now is to differentiate among those companies that are best serving their customers in a fashion that provides net income and cash flow. We are spending our time and effort accordingly.